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UBS Global Wealth Management anticipates a positive outlook for US equities in 2025, driven by resilient growth and lower interest rates, with a focus on tech, utilities, and financial sectors. The firm also sees opportunities in AI-linked semiconductors and emphasizes the potential of diversified exposure to Asia, particularly India and Indonesia, amid geopolitical tensions. Additionally, UBS GWM projects the S&P 500 could reach 6,600 by year-end 2025, while gold is expected to hit new highs due to ongoing economic uncertainties.
The U.S. dollar remains near a 13-month high as investors evaluate the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, with the euro struggling amid European uncertainties. The dollar index slightly dipped to 107.01, close to its one-year peak, while U.S. jobless claims fell to a seven-month low, suggesting potential for rate cuts in December.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the upcoming monetary policy meeting in December will feature a live discussion on the possibility of raising interest rates. He emphasized the unpredictability of the meeting's outcome, noting that significant data will emerge in the month leading up to it.
Nvidia"s share price has dipped below a key ascending channel, with support at $146.78 and potential declines towards $120, while strong earnings could push it back above $150. Gold has experienced an 8% pullback amid a stronger US dollar, but geopolitical tensions may renew its appeal as a safe haven, with critical support at $2600. The Japanese yen has weakened significantly, raising concerns of intervention by the Bank of Japan, especially if the USD/JPY approaches 157-158, while a drop below 153 could indicate a reversal.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent comments have left the timing of a potential interest rate hike uncertain, contributing to a weaker yen. Ahead of the BOJ's December meeting, Ueda emphasized a data-dependent approach, indicating that future policy adjustments will hinge on economic conditions and price movements.
The dollar is poised to extend its gains, supported by high Treasury yields and a cautious outlook on U.S. rate cuts, while concerns over potential intervention have led to a pullback against the yen. Market participants are on edge ahead of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech, which may hint at a possible rate hike in December due to the yen's weakness. Current market expectations suggest a 55% chance of a quarter-point increase to 0.5% at the BOJ's meeting on December 19.
Yen bulls are optimistic about a potential rebound in Japan's currency, anticipating that interest-rate hikes from the Bank of Japan and cuts from the Federal Reserve could push the yen to around 130 against the dollar. However, caution prevails due to the yen's volatility in 2024 and uncertainties surrounding the impact of Donald Trump's possible return to the White House on Fed policy and global markets.
The US dollar has strengthened significantly, climbing 6% since early October, driven by expectations of favorable policies under President Trump's second term. However, there are indications that the dollar may be overshooting its value, with forecasts suggesting a potential decline against the euro and other currencies as economic fundamentals shift. Investors are advised to consider reducing dollar exposure and exploring alternative currency strategies as the market adjusts.
Japan's GDP grew by 0.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, ending two consecutive quarters of decline, following a revised 1.1% drop in the second quarter. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.25% in July, the highest since 2008, with potential further increases if economic conditions improve. Following the GDP announcement, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.76%, while the yen weakened against the dollar amid ongoing volatility.
The Bank of Japan's board members expressed caution regarding a potential rate hike, with no definitive indication of a move in December. One member noted that it is premature to conclude that markets are stabilizing. The central bank maintained its current interest rates during the meeting held prior to the US presidential election.
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